Saturday, August 18, 2007

A Bleak Outlook

A quick comparison-

Starter #1
Career stats:
111 wins, 1196 strikeouts, 3.67 ERA, and .234 batting average against (BAA), 1 Cy Young
2007 stats - record 9-11, 100 strikeouts, 4.88 ERA, and a .252 BAA
Current contract - 7 years, $126 million or $18 million per year

Starter #2
Career stats:
78 wins, 1004 strikeouts, 3.37 ERA, and a .225 BAA
2007 stats - record 14-9, 139 strikeouts, 3.86 ERA, and a .231 BAA
Current contract - 5 years, $91.5 million or $18.3 million per year

Starter #3
Career stats:
90 wins, 1320 strikeouts, 3.17 ERA, and .220 BAA, 2 Cy Youngs
2007 season - record 12-9, 174 strikeouts, 3.02 ERA, and .220 BAA

As you may have guessed, that 3rd starter is Johan Santana. He has better career stats than both starter 1 and 2. Way more career strikeouts, and fewer wins that Starter 1 due to less seasons to his record. His ERA is a full half run better than starter 1 over his career, and has a lower BAA and ERA than both starters 1 and 2. All I'm trying to show here is that the Twins are going to have to give out a HUGE amount of money to Johan in order to retain him in the future. Considering his stats will be even better by the time his contract is up after next season, Johan could command easily over 20 million a year, and possibly closer to 25 million dollars a year than 20. Starters 1 and 2, better known as Barry Zito and Carlos Zambrano, are currently the highest paid starting pitchers in the league over the length of their contracts. Each is due over 18 million a year for at least 5 years.

Unless 93 year old Carl Pohlad decides to open up his wallet for Johan, to the tune of at least 20 million a year, and most likely much, much more, Johan will be pitching elsewhere when the Twins debut in their new stadium. My guess - the Boston Red Sox, since it seems that every good former Minnesota player is being delegated to the New England area.

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